The number of applications to the most rejective American universities has been growing for the last 20 years. Interestingly, the number of Americans going to university is reaching a demographic peak, but the number of applications has been growing as students apply to more universities, and more students from abroad also apply - many of whom might not necessarily enrol.
Universities will never tell a student not to apply. The more applications received, the lower the admit rate, and the lower the admit rate, the higher ranked a school will be. These silly, subjective, flawed rankings have led to an arms race of sorts where universities seek applications from around the globe to "keep up" with the school down the road that is doing the same.
Covid resulted in universities largely adopting a "Test Optional" policy as they couldn't realistically ask for a test that students couldn't take. This led to many students applying to MORE schools than before, including those that they probably have zero chance of getting into. Test scores used to act as a rough filter of sorts to reduce frivolous applications, but if the test is "optional" then why not send in an application from a straight A student? (A majority of students at many schools are "straight A students" now...)
This accelerated the growth in application numbers further with those to the most popular schools surging upwards of 20% from 2020 to 2023. The number of places has been fixed so the result is even lower admit numbers as the number of applications to schools like NYU have more than doubled in 10 years. All the while, as previously reported, the majority of those that get into said schools are submitting SAT scores. Test "optional" is actually test "preferred".
Switching away from test optional would result in a sudden dip in the number of applications received, a rise in the admit rate, and a fall in the rankings. Only a select few schools have been brave enough to adjust their policy to reflect the reality on the ground - Cornell being the latest on April 22nd. We expect more to follow, but it is a collective action problem with universities effectively side-eyeing their peers. It is too late now for any other changes for this coming 2024-2025 admissions cycle, but more schools are sure to follow. Perversely, some schools might follow as doing so would group them with the very rejective schools that have already done so and perhaps help with application numbers!
An excerpt from our related research drawn from university Common Data Sets with charts and graphs can be found below.
We will be mining this data for more thoughts in the future. For now, please look at schools outside of some arbitrary ranking table or those that are "popular" at your school - only about 75 schools in America are actually hard to get into!
