We have done some fairly involved analysis of data available from university Common Data Sets, yearly statistical snapshots released by most universities covering enrolment and admissions. A graphical narrative of our story can be found here. (Note this tale is most relevant for the 40-50 American schools that are, for some reason, most popular among domestic and (especially) international students. The overwhelming majority of American universities are excellent, and not competitive to get into.)
The basic narrative is as follows:
- A small number of American universities were becoming harder and harder to get into as there was a slow and building race to perceived "quality" among applicants.
- Covid happened and all schools shifted to a test optional as they couldn't require a test that kids couldn't take.
- This led to an appreciable increase in the number of applications to said schools as many students who would previously have been reluctant to apply due to low test scores went ahead and had a try.
- Universities largely did not increase enrolment and hence the admit rate among these schools dropped even faster than pre-Covid trends.
- Admit rate is a key metric of the many university ranking systems that have far more influence than is merited.
- The majority of students enrolling in these schools did submit test scores, though the actual admit rates with and without scores is not public.
- Universities know that if they start requiring tests then there will be a drop in application numbers, a rise in admit rates, and fall in their rankings - perhaps leading to a cycle of even lower application numbers, rinse, repeat.
- A few universities have reverted back to test required based on several fairly weighty studies that indicated test scores are a better indicator of potential collegiate success compared to GPAs that have been further inflated by Covid. These have generally been schools that don't need to worry about application volume as their high rankings are assured (Harvard, Yale, MIT, CalTech, etc,).
- Universities in the test optional camp often list test scores as "important"" in admissions decisions yet continue to have test "optional" as their stated policy. Are test scores important, just as good grades, academic rigor, and CCAs are also important?
- High schools do not know which students submit test scores and which students do not, and universities do not reveal this. This makes the admissions process more opaque and confusing for all concerned as is makes the question "do I submit scores" into one that is sometimes impossible to answer.
To help families better understand the admissions process, we ask that universities reveal the following information:
- International, in-state, and out of state admissions rates (many are now revealing this!)
- Admit rate for students that submit scores and for those that do not.
Universities will not start doing this until based on the words of a test prep provider. We call on all students, parents, and university advisors to ask every single university representative they meet to reveal this information. This will help families make better sense of the admissions process and make more informed decisions.
